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Red66
56693.3
499921.8
330922.8
Blue41
690411.2
842.4
852118.3
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions64770501001506641

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+5Teleop
+7Endgame
+25Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave6
2Coral scored#1
10Coral points4
13Total auto10
TeleoperatedRed +2
6Coral scored#4
21Coral points13
0Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
0Processor points6
8Net points8
8Algae points14
29Total teleop27
Reef
2L4#2
2L3#1
2L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
10Game pieces#8
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +25
20Foul points2
66Total score41

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3309
#25
22.82.5
28.025.5
Auto6.8
Teleop14.0
End2.1
blue by 19.6
8
#28
42.44.1
29.725.6
Auto12.3
Teleop26.1
End4.0
Second
4999
#22
21.82.5
15.613.1
Auto5.0
Teleop11.8
End4.9
red by 3.5
8521
#32
18.34.1
20.616.6
Auto3.3
Teleop14.0
End0.9
Third
5669
#47
3.32.5
12.710.3
Auto-0.9
Teleop4.7
End-0.5
blue by 7.9
6904
#43
11.24.1
15.010.9
Auto3.9
Teleop5.4
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
64%Auto oddsMissed33%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
29%Barge oddsMissed30%Barge oddsMissed