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Red122
669511.8
395226.0
699550.5
Blue75
744711.1
528517.4
499921.8
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10447015012275

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+37Teleop
+47Endgame
+47Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave6
4Coral scored#1
20Coral points3
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +23
16Coral scored#9
59Coral points32
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
6Processor points6
12Net points16
18Algae points22
77Total teleop54
Reef
7L4#3
5L3#2
3L2#3
5L1 · trough#2
24Game pieces#15
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +47
6Foul points6
122Total score75

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.51.5
44.646.1
Auto15.7
Teleop29.5
End5.2
red by 28.7
4999
#22
21.80.4
15.816.2
Auto5.0
Teleop11.8
End4.9
Second
3952
#18
26.01.5
25.527.0
Auto6.0
Teleop15.7
End4.3
red by 8.6
5285
#42
17.40.4
15.415.8
Auto3.4
Teleop11.0
End2.9
Third
6695
#37
11.81.5
14.115.6
Auto4.5
Teleop6.5
End0.8
red by 0.7
7447
#35
11.10.4
13.914.3
Auto3.6
Teleop6.8
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
82%Auto oddsEarned51%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
17%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
24%Barge oddsEarned26%Barge oddsMissed