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Red146
248630.2
414134.6
84028.3
Blue90
302031.2
285318.4
583519.3
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions847420406010012014014690

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+16Auto
+44Teleop
+58Endgame
+56Fouls
AutonomousRed +16
3Leave3
4Coral scored#1
22Coral points6
25Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +28
16Coral scored#14
57Coral points49
3Processor algae#1
4Net algae#2
18Processor points6
16Net points8
34Algae points14
91Total teleop63
Reef
7L4#3
4L3#5
4L2#4
5L1 · trough#3
27Game pieces#18
BargeRed +14
26Cage & park12
26Total endgame12
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +56
4Foul points6
146Total score90

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4141
#11
34.66.4
25.431.8
Auto8.3
Teleop20.9
End5.4
red by 3.4
3020
#17
31.20.7
21.221.8
Auto3.2
Teleop20.2
End7.8
Second
2486
#20
30.26.4
26.232.6
Auto5.8
Teleop15.7
End8.6
red by 10.9
5835
#13
19.30.7
22.423.0
Auto5.6
Teleop11.1
End2.5
Third
840
#27
28.36.4
16.222.6
Auto4.1
Teleop20.6
End3.5
red by 9.9
2853
#31
18.40.7
17.318.0
Auto3.7
Teleop12.6
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
42%Auto oddsEarned68%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
40%Barge oddsEarned74%Barge oddsEarned