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Red115
153847.3
473855.7
385912.5
Blue83
580524.9
940854.1
704220.0
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1269540608014016018020011583

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+30Teleop
+32Endgame
+32Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
9Leave0
4Coral scored#2
21Coral points9
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +9
14Coral scored#16
49Coral points58
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#2
12Processor points6
20Net points8
32Algae points14
81Total teleop72
Reef
7L4#7
5L3#5
4L2#4
2L1 · trough#2
25Game pieces#21
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +32
0Foul points0
115Total score83

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.70.4
50.751.0
Auto14.7
Teleop35.7
End5.3
red by 1.5
9408
#12
54.10.7
41.641.0
Auto11.9
Teleop37.7
End4.6
Second
1538
#10
47.30.4
45.846.2
Auto8.6
Teleop37.4
End1.3
red by 22.4
5805
#15
24.90.7
26.926.2
Auto2.6
Teleop17.9
End4.4
Third
3859
#26
12.50.4
15.115.5
Auto5.8
Teleop5.2
End1.5
blue by 7.5
7042
#41
20.00.7
20.419.7
Auto3.9
Teleop13.9
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
64%Auto oddsEarned62%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
16%Coral oddsEarned8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
68%Barge oddsMissed80%Barge oddsMissed