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Red150
519958.4
690411.2
940854.1
Blue120
715739.7
498416.6
803360.0
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11912780100140160150120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+12Teleop
+22Endgame
+30Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
6Leave6
5Coral scored#1
24Coral points6
30Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +6
14Coral scored#14
52Coral points52
2Processor algae#3
6Net algae#6
12Processor points18
24Net points24
36Algae points42
88Total teleop94
Reef
9L4#4
4L3#5
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#3
27Game pieces#24
BargeRed +10
24Cage & park14
24Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +30
8Foul points0
150Total score120

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.43.2
53.256.4
Auto13.2
Teleop35.4
End9.8
blue by 1.6
60.00.4
59.559.9
Auto13.6
Teleop38.4
End8.0
Second
9408
#12
54.13.2
46.449.7
Auto11.9
Teleop37.7
End4.6
red by 14.4
39.70.4
41.441.8
Auto6.9
Teleop28.2
End4.6
Third
6904
#43
11.23.2
8.712.0
Auto3.9
Teleop5.4
End1.9
blue by 5.5
4984
#39
16.60.4
15.115.5
Auto1.6
Teleop12.7
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
35%Auto oddsEarned72%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
14%Coral oddsMissed21%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
70%Barge oddsEarned91%Barge oddsEarned