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Red119
889121.6
441458.8
502520.8
Blue45
283919.4
688516.9
70229.8
92%Model gave it8%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9861020408012014016011945

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+64Teleop
+74Endgame
+74Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
6Leave0
1Coral scored#2
7Coral points9
13Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +60
17Coral scored#5
62Coral points18
1Processor algae#1
6Net algae#2
6Processor points6
24Net points8
30Algae points14
92Total teleop32
Reef
10L4#3
3L3#2
3L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
25Game pieces#10
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +74
0Foul points0
119Total score45

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.84.2
44.148.3
Auto12.6
Teleop38.7
End7.5
red by 29.0
702
#40
29.81.0
19.918.9
Auto6.5
Teleop22.9
End0.4
Second
8891
#25
21.64.2
18.722.9
Auto2.4
Teleop15.4
End3.8
red by 2.2
2839
#42
19.41.0
18.117.1
Auto2.8
Teleop16.0
End0.6
Third
5025
#34
20.84.2
15.419.6
Auto4.6
Teleop14.5
End1.7
red by 3.9
6885
#21
16.91.0
13.412.4
Auto4.4
Teleop11.8
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
42%Auto oddsMissed21%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsEarned4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
66%Barge oddsEarned24%Barge oddsMissed