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Red134
325561.9
502520.8
386337.7
Blue151
656033.4
375930.7
441458.8
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12011380100140160134151

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+17
Endgame+17
Fouls+17
AutonomousBlue +4
6Leave3
3Coral scored#4
13Coral points20
19Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +13
20Coral scored#17
73Coral points62
2Processor algae#4
4Net algae#7
12Processor points24
16Net points28
28Algae points52
101Total teleop114
Reef
9L4#5
6L3#6
5L2#7
3L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#32
Bargelevel
14Cage & park14
14Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +17
0Foul points0
134Total score151

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.91.1
55.256.3
Auto14.0
Teleop39.8
End8.1
red by 3.1
58.82.9
49.852.7
Auto12.6
Teleop38.7
End7.5
Second
37.71.1
31.732.8
Auto4.1
Teleop29.2
End4.4
red by 4.3
6560
#22
33.42.9
27.330.2
Auto3.8
Teleop28.3
End1.3
Third
5025
#34
20.81.1
21.522.6
Auto4.6
Teleop14.5
End1.7
blue by 9.9
3759
#12
30.72.9
29.332.3
Auto5.3
Teleop23.7
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned75%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
16%Coral oddsEarned11%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
56%Barge oddsEarned66%Barge oddsEarned