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Red123
713733.0
84151.2
666231.4
Blue126
265936.8
977725.7
248927.5
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions98590150200123126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+17
Endgame+3
Fouls+3
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave3
2Coral scored#3
9Coral points13
9Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +10
21Coral scored#20
74Coral points72
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#6
12Processor points12
12Net points24
24Algae points36
98Total teleop108
Reef
12L4#10
4L3#5
4L2#4
3L1 · trough#4
28Game pieces#31
BargeRed +14
14Cage & park0
14Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +3
2Foul points2
123Total score126

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
841
#19
51.22.3
34.036.4
Auto8.9
Teleop35.5
End6.8
red by 14.4
2659
#25
36.84.8
23.027.8
Auto7.3
Teleop28.5
End1.0
Second
7137
#24
33.02.1
25.727.8
Auto5.9
Teleop25.3
End1.9
red by 5.5
27.53.9
12.316.2
Auto6.8
Teleop18.5
End2.1
Third
6662
#26
31.42.1
21.223.3
Auto3.1
Teleop26.8
End1.5
red by 5.8
9777
#18
25.74.3
21.926.2
Auto4.3
Teleop18.7
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
59%Auto oddsMissed35%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
21%Barge oddsEarned17%Barge oddsMissed