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Red121
666231.4
696238.2
265936.8
Blue51
1061515.5
914338.9
64920.2
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions118955015020012151

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+72Teleop
+68Endgame
+70Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
6Leave6
2Coral scored#0
10Coral points0
16Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +62
23Coral scored#9
83Coral points31
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
12Processor points6
8Net points4
20Algae points10
103Total teleop41
Reef
11L4#3
7L3#2
4L2#3
3L1 · trough#1
29Game pieces#11
BargeBlue +4
0Cage & park4
0Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +70
2Foul points0
121Total score51

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6962
#21
38.21.2
36.037.2
Auto9.9
Teleop27.3
End1.0
blue by 0.7
9143
#28
38.92.3
40.938.6
Auto8.3
Teleop29.2
End1.4
Second
2659
#25
36.81.2
35.036.2
Auto7.3
Teleop28.5
End1.0
red by 16.6
649
#38
20.22.3
23.921.6
Auto6.2
Teleop11.9
End2.0
Third
6662
#26
31.41.2
30.231.3
Auto3.1
Teleop26.8
End1.5
red by 15.9
15.53.5
20.116.6
Auto4.5
Teleop10.0
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
57%Auto oddsEarned64%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
19%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
24%Barge oddsMissed21%Barge oddsMissed