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Red195
325569.6
153862.7
811933.9
Blue193
473863.6
498417.4
312867.7
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions178156120140200220240195193

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
0Teleop0
+2Endgame
+2Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave6
9Coral scored#5
44Coral points27
47Total auto33
TeleoperatedBlue +14
23Coral scored#30
84Coral points108
2Processor algae#3
9Net algae#5
12Processor points18
36Net points20
48Algae points38
132Total teleop146
Reef
12L4#15
11L3#11
5L2#6
4L1 · trough#3
43Game pieces#43
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +2
0Foul points0
195Total score193

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
69.60.6
68.669.2
Auto17.1
Teleop43.1
End9.3
red by 1.9
67.70.9
66.367.2
Auto14.4
Teleop42.9
End10.4
Second
62.70.6
61.762.3
Auto14.3
Teleop43.5
End4.9
blue by 1.0
63.60.9
62.263.2
Auto19.6
Teleop40.5
End3.6
Third
8119
#18
33.90.6
33.033.6
Auto3.9
Teleop27.9
End2.1
red by 16.5
4984
#39
17.40.9
16.016.9
Auto1.9
Teleop14.2
End1.3