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Red99
76651.0
374925.0
547426.2
Blue74
271040.3
282715.8
162215.6
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions95650501509974

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+23Teleop
+25Endgame
+25Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave3
3Coral scored#3
13Coral points13
19Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +20
9Coral scored#9
34Coral points34
1Processor algae#1
6Net algae#1
6Processor points6
24Net points4
30Algae points10
64Total teleop44
Reef
5L4#5
3L3#3
3L2#3
1L1 · trough#1
19Game pieces#14
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +25
0Foul points0
99Total score74

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
766
#15
51.01.3
43.845.1
Auto6.0
Teleop38.8
End6.2
red by 10.7
2710
#13
40.30.9
27.928.8
Auto8.5
Teleop25.5
End6.3
Second
5474
#37
26.22.1
21.123.2
Auto4.6
Teleop18.9
End2.7
red by 10.4
2827
#29
15.81.6
21.122.7
Auto4.4
Teleop10.1
End1.4
Third
3749
#7Sur
25.01.4
15.116.5
Auto5.8
Teleop15.1
End4.1
red by 9.4
1622
#20
15.60.9
11.012.0
Auto4.4
Teleop9.1
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
20%Auto oddsEarned43%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
34%Barge oddsEarned48%Barge oddsEarned