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Red62
744116.3
157220.3
473863.6
Blue43
364718.8
811933.9
334113.8
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions117800501001502006243

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+5Teleop
+7Endgame
+19Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
9Leave0
4Coral scored#2
18Coral points9
27Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +13
4Coral scored#6
13Coral points20
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
0Processor points6
4Net points4
4Algae points10
17Total teleop30
Reef
3L4#3
2L3#3
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
9Game pieces#10
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +19
12Foul points0
62Total score43

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
63.63.1
57.654.4
Auto19.6
Teleop40.5
End3.6
red by 29.7
8119
#18
33.92.0
33.231.1
Auto3.9
Teleop27.9
End2.1
Second
1572
#16
20.35.2
21.115.9
Auto6.9
Teleop11.6
End1.9
red by 1.5
3647
#23
18.82.0
24.822.8
Auto5.1
Teleop9.6
End4.1
Third
7441
#42
16.35.2
18.213.0
Auto2.7
Teleop11.2
End2.3
red by 2.6
3341
#50
13.83.4
15.712.3
Auto4.0
Teleop5.6
End4.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
79%Auto oddsMissed53%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
12%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
36%Barge oddsMissed35%Barge oddsMissed