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Red41
81226.4
334113.8
1039218.9
Blue86
265817.3
802045.2
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6682020401001201404186

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+10
Teleop+49
Endgame+47
Fouls+45
AutonomousBlue +10
3Leave0
0Coral scored#3
0Coral points13
3Total auto13
TeleoperatedBlue +39
4Coral scored#13
16Coral points45
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#2
0Processor points6
4Net points8
4Algae points14
20Total teleop59
Reef
1L4#8
1L3#3
1L2#4
1L1 · trough#1
5Game pieces#19
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +45
2Foul points0
41Total score86

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
812
#21
26.42.6
19.216.6
Auto2.9
Teleop16.4
End7.0
blue by 18.8
45.21.0
36.537.6
Auto8.2
Teleop27.4
End9.5
Second
18.93.7
18.915.2
Auto4.3
Teleop12.0
End2.7
red by 1.6
2658
#30
17.31.1
15.016.1
Auto2.6
Teleop11.7
End3.0
Third
3341
#50
13.82.6
22.119.5
Auto4.0
Teleop5.6
End4.2
red by 4.3
9.47.9
11.519.4
Auto1.8
Teleop5.4
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
40%Auto oddsMissed27%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
32%Barge oddsEarned60%Barge oddsEarned