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Red153
325569.6
298425.5
427639.2
Blue73
973014.5
271040.3
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14353010020025015373

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+58Teleop
+80Endgame
+80Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
6Leave6
4Coral scored#1
20Coral points3
26Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +41
19Coral scored#13
67Coral points46
3Processor algae#1
4Net algae#2
18Processor points6
16Net points8
34Algae points14
101Total teleop60
Reef
7L4#6
8L3#3
4L2#3
4L1 · trough#2
30Game pieces#17
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +80
0Foul points0
153Total score73

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
69.61.6
63.865.4
Auto17.1
Teleop43.1
End9.3
red by 29.3
2710
#13
40.30.3
33.633.9
Auto8.5
Teleop25.5
End6.3
Second
4276
#14
39.21.6
35.637.1
Auto7.9
Teleop25.4
End5.8
red by 24.7
9730
#47
14.50.5
17.718.2
Auto4.5
Teleop9.3
End0.6
Third
2984
#26
25.52.7
18.521.1
Auto5.4
Teleop18.1
End2.0
red by 16.1
9.40.5
6.36.7
Auto1.8
Teleop5.4
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned57%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
26%Coral oddsEarned5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
52%Barge oddsEarned60%Barge oddsMissed