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Red132
513736.1
81226.4
271040.3
Blue119
502529.8
551428.2
283922.6
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions98744060120140160132119

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+2
+11Teleop
+13Endgame
+13Fouls
AutonomousBlue +2
0Leave3
4Coral scored#4
19Coral points18
19Total auto21
TeleoperatedRed +13
19Coral scored#14
69Coral points50
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#7
12Processor points6
16Net points28
28Algae points34
97Total teleop84
Reef
11L4#5
5L3#7
4L2#3
3L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#26
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +13
0Foul points0
132Total score119

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2710
#13
40.32.4
34.636.9
Auto8.5
Teleop25.5
End6.3
red by 10.5
5025
#35
29.82.7
23.726.4
Auto6.7
Teleop17.5
End5.6
Second
5137
#11
36.12.4
32.134.5
Auto7.4
Teleop24.1
End4.6
red by 7.9
5514
#17
28.22.7
24.226.9
Auto8.5
Teleop16.8
End2.9
Third
812
#21
26.43.7
17.921.5
Auto2.9
Teleop16.4
End7.0
red by 3.7
2839
#48
22.62.7
20.323.0
Auto3.3
Teleop19.6
End-0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
78%Auto oddsEarned70%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed12%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
78%Barge oddsEarned15%Barge oddsEarned