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Red179
248546.2
271040.3
889135.1
Blue129
416024.7
945237.2
254342.4
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13111780100140160180200179129

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+29Auto
+52Teleop
+50Endgame
+50Fouls
AutonomousRed +29
6Leave9
8Coral scored#1
38Coral points6
44Total auto15
TeleoperatedRed +23
23Coral scored#17
81Coral points60
3Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
18Processor points12
12Net points16
30Algae points28
111Total teleop88
Reef
8L4#7
11L3#6
7L2#3
5L1 · trough#2
37Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +2
24Cage & park26
24Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +50
0Foul points0
179Total score129

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2485
#10
46.21.4
43.845.3
Auto11.0
Teleop31.5
End3.7
red by 3.8
2543
#25
42.40.6
41.842.4
Auto5.8
Teleop27.9
End8.7
Second
2710
#13
40.31.4
37.939.4
Auto8.5
Teleop25.5
End6.3
red by 3.1
9452
#19
37.20.6
36.637.2
Auto5.9
Teleop26.9
End4.4
Third
8891
#22
35.11.4
32.734.2
Auto5.0
Teleop26.1
End4.0
red by 10.4
24.70.6
24.124.7
Auto3.8
Teleop16.7
End4.2