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Red124
603660.6
425522.1
510434.2
Blue50
1006412.3
145823.0
581740.9
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions128985015020012450

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+80Teleop
+82Endgame
+74Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave0
5Coral scored#3
24Coral points16
30Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +66
19Coral scored#4
68Coral points16
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#0
12Processor points6
8Net points0
20Algae points6
88Total teleop22
Reef
11L4#2
6L3#3
5L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
28Game pieces#8
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +74
0Foul points8
124Total score50

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.61.1
53.854.9
Auto18.1
Teleop41.5
End1.0
red by 19.7
5817
#22
40.92.9
40.237.3
Auto9.9
Teleop28.3
End2.8
Second
5104
#12
34.21.1
30.731.8
Auto6.9
Teleop20.6
End6.7
red by 11.2
1458
#19
23.02.9
30.027.0
Auto5.9
Teleop15.5
End1.5
Third
4255
#35
22.11.8
23.125.0
Auto5.1
Teleop14.7
End2.4
red by 9.8
12.32.9
15.812.9
Auto3.0
Teleop7.7
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
70%Auto oddsEarned80%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
66%Coral oddsEarned7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
60%Barge oddsMissed52%Barge oddsMissed