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Red155
803367.6
572814.6
1052357.2
Blue128
570027.8
603660.6
186829.2
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions143125050100200250300155128

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+17Teleop
+27Endgame
+27Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave9
6Coral scored#4
31Coral points21
37Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +10
19Coral scored#16
68Coral points56
2Processor algae#3
6Net algae#5
12Processor points18
24Net points20
36Algae points38
104Total teleop94
Reef
9L4#9
7L3#6
6L2#4
3L1 · trough#1
33Game pieces#28
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +27
0Foul points0
155Total score128

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
67.61.0
64.665.5
Auto20.5
Teleop39.3
End7.8
red by 6.9
60.60.1
57.657.7
Auto18.1
Teleop41.5
End1.0
Second
57.21.2
53.354.5
Auto11.1
Teleop40.6
End5.5
red by 28.0
1868
#20
29.20.1
29.529.6
Auto6.6
Teleop20.0
End2.5
Third
5728
#23
14.61.2
11.612.8
Auto3.1
Teleop10.5
End1.0
blue by 13.2
5700
#26
27.80.1
27.827.9
Auto7.1
Teleop18.9
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned85%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
20%Coral oddsEarned34%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
75%Barge oddsEarned22%Barge oddsMissed