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Red145
415931.2
594088.1
605914.8
Blue149
304559.9
623839.4
490415.6
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1309650150200145149

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
Teleop+2
+6Endgame
Fouls+4
AutonomousRed +6
9Leave3
4Coral scored#4
21Coral points21
30Total auto24
TeleoperatedBlue +8
17Coral scored#24
61Coral points87
4Processor algae#1
4Net algae#4
24Processor points6
16Net points16
40Algae points22
101Total teleop109
Reef
10L4#13
5L3#6
2L2#4
4L1 · trough#5
29Game pieces#33
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +4
0Foul points10
145Total score149

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
88.12.3
79.381.6
Auto20.9
Teleop57.3
End9.8
red by 28.2
59.92.4
53.355.7
Auto17.2
Teleop38.2
End4.5
Second
4159
#15
31.22.3
21.223.5
Auto7.5
Teleop21.0
End2.7
blue by 8.2
39.43.8
28.332.0
Auto5.3
Teleop26.5
End7.6
Third
6059
#35
14.82.3
11.413.6
Auto3.0
Teleop10.5
End1.3
blue by 0.8
4904
#28
15.63.8
9.913.6
Auto4.0
Teleop10.2
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
54%Auto oddsEarned64%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
37%Coral oddsEarned11%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
61%Barge oddsEarned55%Barge oddsMissed