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Red55
688513.6
997925.9
997623.6
Blue53
547433.7
551429.4
998115.2
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions31710501001502002505553

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+10
+2Endgame
+2Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
6Leave6
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points7
9Total auto13
TeleoperatedBlue +6
4Coral scored#4
16Coral points16
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
0Processor points6
4Net points4
4Algae points10
20Total teleop26
Reef
2L4#2
1L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
6Game pieces#7
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +2
0Foul points0
55Total score53

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9979
#20
25.92.4
9.111.5
Auto4.1
Teleop17.4
End4.5
blue by 7.8
5474
#21
33.71.3
31.129.7
Auto9.2
Teleop19.7
End4.7
Second
9976
#22
23.62.4
10.613.0
Auto4.0
Teleop13.2
End6.5
blue by 5.8
5514
#16
29.41.3
27.225.9
Auto6.5
Teleop17.3
End5.6
Third
6885
#19
13.61.5
13.414.8
Auto5.0
Teleop6.8
End1.8
blue by 1.6
9981
#25
15.22.2
14.712.5
Auto2.6
Teleop9.5
End3.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
59%Auto oddsMissed40%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
14%Barge oddsMissed15%Barge oddsMissed