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Red93
1058621.2
889133.5
298416.6
Blue51
997729.9
551429.4
95736.9
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions575802040801009351

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+54Teleop
+42Endgame
+42Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
6Leave3
3Coral scored#1
13Coral points6
19Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +44
14Coral scored#5
52Coral points18
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#2
6Processor points0
12Net points8
18Algae points8
70Total teleop26
Reef
7L4#2
5L3#1
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
21Game pieces#8
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +42
0Foul points0
93Total score51

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8891
#11
33.52.0
26.128.1
Auto4.8
Teleop26.8
End1.9
red by 3.7
9977
#33
29.90.7
14.213.5
Auto4.5
Teleop19.4
End6.0
Second
21.22.0
17.920.0
Auto4.6
Teleop15.1
End1.5
blue by 8.2
5514
#16
29.40.4
25.925.4
Auto6.5
Teleop17.3
End5.6
Third
2984
#24
16.62.0
10.512.5
Auto4.2
Teleop11.5
End1.0
red by 9.7
9573
#35
6.90.4
8.48.0
Auto2.6
Teleop3.1
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
35%Auto oddsEarned73%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
15%Barge oddsMissed14%Barge oddsMissed