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Red115
997813.6
312850.4
551429.4
Blue89
998313.3
364728.6
97308.9
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10738015020025011589

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+16Auto
+26Teleop
+44Endgame
+26Fouls
AutonomousRed +16
3Leave3
4Coral scored#1
22Coral points6
25Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +10
12Coral scored#11
42Coral points40
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#2
6Processor points6
16Net points8
22Algae points14
64Total teleop54
Reef
5L4#4
4L3#4
5L2#3
2L1 · trough#1
21Game pieces#15
BargeRed +18
20Cage & park2
20Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +26
6Foul points24
115Total score89

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.41.3
49.150.4
Auto9.9
Teleop29.0
End11.4
red by 21.8
3647
#23
28.61.2
27.428.6
Auto3.6
Teleop23.4
End1.6
Second
5514
#16
29.41.3
28.029.3
Auto6.5
Teleop17.3
End5.6
red by 16.1
9983
#18
13.31.6
11.613.3
Auto3.1
Teleop7.5
End2.8
Third
9978
#27
13.61.8
11.813.6
Auto2.7
Teleop9.9
End1.1
red by 4.7
9730
#30
8.91.2
7.68.9
Auto2.7
Teleop6.0
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
71%Auto oddsEarned34%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
14%Coral oddsMissed2%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
77%Barge oddsMissed4%Barge oddsMissed