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Red199
69654.3
263761.4
940883.7
Blue83
441946.0
412354.3
1102413.4
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions19210505015025030035019983

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+100Teleop
+108Endgame
+116Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave0
8Coral scored#6
41Coral points30
44Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +86
25Coral scored#10
89Coral points37
2Processor algae#1
8Net algae#1
12Processor points6
32Net points4
44Algae points10
133Total teleop47
Reef
8L4#6
14L3#5
5L2#3
6L1 · trough#2
43Game pieces#18
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +116
8Foul points0
199Total score83

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
83.71.5
75.176.6
Auto16.1
Teleop56.9
End10.7
red by 29.3
54.31.5
50.548.9
Auto13.1
Teleop36.9
End4.4
Second
61.41.5
41.943.4
Auto17.1
Teleop36.4
End8.0
red by 15.4
4419
#12
46.01.5
45.143.6
Auto7.6
Teleop30.5
End7.9
Third
696
#8
54.31.5
52.153.5
Auto11.6
Teleop41.9
End0.8
red by 41.0
13.42.6
10.58.0
Auto3.5
Teleop7.6
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned61%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
38%Coral oddsEarned11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
64%Barge oddsEarned20%Barge oddsMissed