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Red78
347324.8
96817.8
113845.6
Blue90
347632.0
116038.4
59734.9
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions991150501502007890

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
Teleop+30
Endgame+18
Fouls+12
AutonomousBlue +11
6Leave6
3Coral scored#5
13Coral points24
19Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +19
8Coral scored#11
27Coral points38
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#3
6Processor points6
4Net points12
10Algae points18
37Total teleop56
Reef
4L4#6
3L3#4
2L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
13Game pieces#20
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +12
6Foul points0
78Total score90

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1138
#13
45.61.3
45.544.3
Auto7.6
Teleop28.5
End9.5
red by 7.2
1160
#26
38.41.0
39.838.8
Auto9.4
Teleop27.0
End2.0
Second
3473
#28
24.81.3
26.024.8
Auto6.6
Teleop16.0
End2.2
blue by 10.1
597
#24
34.91.0
33.532.4
Auto7.2
Teleop26.4
End1.3
Third
968
#40
17.81.3
19.518.2
Auto3.7
Teleop8.9
End5.2
blue by 14.2
3476
#19
32.01.0
32.031.0
Auto7.0
Teleop20.7
End4.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned90%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
56%Barge oddsMissed39%Barge oddsMissed