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Red158
114843.1
441946.0
70234.4
Blue170
119760.0
347632.0
69654.3
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1271620100200300400158170

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+26
Endgame+16
Fouls+12
AutonomousBlue +14
0Leave9
4Coral scored#5
19Coral points24
19Total auto33
TeleoperatedBlue +12
25Coral scored#24
91Coral points85
2Processor algae#3
2Net algae#5
12Processor points18
8Net points20
20Algae points38
111Total teleop123
Reef
8L4#8
10L3#11
5L2#4
6L1 · trough#6
33Game pieces#37
BargeRed +10
24Cage & park14
24Total endgame14
Penalties & totalBlue +12
4Foul points0
158Total score170

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4419
#12
46.00.7
45.346.0
Auto7.6
Teleop30.5
End7.9
blue by 14.0
60.00.6
59.059.6
Auto17.8
Teleop36.5
End5.7
Second
1148
#20
43.10.7
42.443.1
Auto7.6
Teleop29.5
End6.0
blue by 11.2
696
#8
54.30.6
53.353.9
Auto11.6
Teleop41.9
End0.8
Third
702
#17
34.40.7
33.634.4
Auto8.1
Teleop25.1
End1.2
red by 2.4
3476
#19
32.00.6
31.031.6
Auto7.0
Teleop20.7
End4.2