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Red190
519968.7
59950.3
432240.3
Blue197
29476.3
580527.7
263761.4
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions171177120140160200220240190197

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+3
Endgame+13
Fouls+7
AutonomousBlue +14
6Leave9
6Coral scored#8
31Coral points42
37Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +11
24Coral scored#26
85Coral points92
5Processor algae#2
4Net algae#4
30Processor points12
16Net points16
46Algae points28
131Total teleop120
Reef
12L4#11
7L3#10
6L2#8
5L1 · trough#5
39Game pieces#40
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Penalties & totalBlue +7
6Foul points0
190Total score197

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5199
#15
68.70.5
68.969.4
Auto11.0
Teleop46.7
End10.9
blue by 7.6
294
#5
76.30.7
74.675.4
Auto17.6
Teleop50.0
End8.8
Second
599
#3
50.30.5
50.551.0
Auto10.5
Teleop38.8
End1.0
blue by 11.1
61.40.7
59.760.5
Auto17.1
Teleop36.4
End8.0
Third
4322
#27
40.30.5
40.440.9
Auto9.6
Teleop29.1
End1.5
red by 12.6
5805
#25
27.70.7
26.026.7
Auto5.5
Teleop18.8
End3.5