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Red90
416013.5
386354.4
332811.6
Blue99
693411.5
263725.0
242940.0
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions76862040601001201409099

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+15
Endgame+5
Fouls+9
AutonomousBlue +4
6Leave3
1Coral scored#3
6Coral points13
12Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +11
10Coral scored#15
36Coral points55
2Processor algae#0
2Net algae#3
12Processor points0
8Net points12
20Algae points12
56Total teleop67
Reef
4L4#7
4L3#5
2L2#4
1L1 · trough#2
15Game pieces#21
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +9
8Foul points12
90Total score99

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
54.41.0
40.541.4
Auto8.6
Teleop36.8
End9.0
red by 14.3
2429
#16
40.01.5
32.834.3
Auto5.6
Teleop32.3
End2.2
Second
4160
#48
13.51.6
21.423.0
Auto2.4
Teleop9.6
End1.4
blue by 11.5
2637
#24
25.01.5
25.026.4
Auto5.9
Teleop17.7
End1.4
Third
3328
#31
11.61.6
5.77.3
Auto3.0
Teleop6.0
End2.7
red by 0.1
6934
#36
11.51.5
16.017.5
Auto4.4
Teleop8.2
End-1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
34%Auto oddsMissed42%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
53%Barge oddsEarned54%Barge oddsEarned