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Red196
471111.4
386354.4
441472.7
Blue78
80608.5
840419.8
742643.8
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1386205010015020019678

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+64Teleop
+72Endgame
+118Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
0Leave0
6Coral scored#5
32Coral points23
32Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +55
16Coral scored#8
58Coral points29
2Processor algae#1
6Net algae#1
12Processor points6
24Net points4
36Algae points10
94Total teleop39
Reef
9L4#5
4L3#4
6L2#2
3L1 · trough#2
30Game pieces#15
BargeRed +8
24Cage & park16
24Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +118
46Foul points0
196Total score78

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
72.72.2
63.665.8
Auto15.7
Teleop48.1
End8.8
red by 28.9
43.81.7
37.439.1
Auto8.3
Teleop30.0
End5.5
Second
54.42.2
41.443.7
Auto8.6
Teleop36.8
End9.0
red by 34.5
8404
#34
19.81.7
16.618.3
Auto2.7
Teleop13.7
End3.5
Third
4711
#37
11.43.7
11.715.4
Auto3.3
Teleop5.7
End2.3
red by 2.8
8060
#47
8.51.7
8.810.4
Auto3.9
Teleop2.8
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
76%Auto oddsMissed36%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
42%Coral oddsEarned10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
90%Barge oddsEarned33%Barge oddsEarned