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Red85
942116.9
586911.7
166128.8
Blue38
853313.5
12803.5
388021.2
81%Model gave it19%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions694302060801001208538

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+45Teleop
+47Endgame
+47Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave9
2Coral scored#0
12Coral points0
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +42
11Coral scored#5
39Coral points17
1Processor algae#1
6Net algae#1
6Processor points6
24Net points4
30Algae points10
69Total teleop27
Reef
3L4#1
5L3#2
4L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
20Game pieces#7
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +47
0Foul points0
85Total score38

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1661
#20
28.81.0
24.125.0
Auto8.4
Teleop17.3
End3.1
red by 7.6
3880
#28
21.21.7
20.118.4
Auto6.3
Teleop12.8
End2.2
Second
9421
#10
16.91.6
14.015.6
Auto4.7
Teleop12.9
End-0.6
red by 3.5
8533
#50
13.51.7
14.913.2
Auto2.4
Teleop9.0
End2.0
Third
5869
#42
11.71.6
17.519.1
Auto1.5
Teleop8.9
End1.2
red by 8.2
1280
#52
3.51.7
5.23.5
Auto2.8
Teleop-0.4
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
37%Auto oddsEarned28%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
36%Barge oddsMissed13%Barge oddsMissed