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Red230
441472.7
448178.5
580528.7
Blue135
742643.8
908434.3
166128.8
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1889850150250230135

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+59Teleop
+83Endgame
+95Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
0Leave9
9Coral scored#4
44Coral points18
44Total auto27
TeleoperatedRed +42
21Coral scored#18
74Coral points64
4Processor algae#2
10Net algae#5
24Processor points12
40Net points20
64Algae points32
138Total teleop96
Reef
7L4#7
9L3#6
8L2#5
6L1 · trough#4
44Game pieces#29
BargeRed +24
36Cage & park12
36Total endgame12
Penalties & totalRed +95
12Foul points0
230Total score135

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
78.51.0
76.077.0
Auto19.7
Teleop49.6
End9.2
red by 34.6
43.80.9
42.743.7
Auto8.3
Teleop30.0
End5.5
Second
72.71.0
70.271.2
Auto15.7
Teleop48.1
End8.8
red by 38.3
9084
#13
34.30.9
33.334.2
Auto12.2
Teleop19.9
End2.2
Third
5805
#49
28.71.0
26.227.2
Auto4.4
Teleop18.5
End5.8
blue by 0.1
1661
#20
28.80.7
28.028.7
Auto8.4
Teleop17.3
End3.1