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Red125
541951.1
119778.0
804837.9
Blue106
204661.2
97359.8
97250.7
49%Model gave it51%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions19321105001,0001,5002,0002,500125106

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+5Teleop
+17Endgame
+19Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
0Leave6
9Coral scored#5
43Coral points27
43Total auto33
TeleoperatedBlue +5
11Coral scored#14
38Coral points49
1Processor algae#2
5Net algae#2
6Processor points12
20Net points8
26Algae points20
64Total teleop69
Reef
9L4#7
5L3#5
3L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
26Game pieces#23
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +19
2Foul points0
125Total score106

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1197
#30
78.04.3
83.679.3
Auto21.5
Teleop48.1
End8.4
red by 16.8
2046
#41
61.26.0
74.468.3
Auto12.6
Teleop43.0
End5.6
Second
5419
#40
51.14.3
59.655.3
Auto10.3
Teleop33.3
End7.6
blue by 8.7
973
#39
59.86.0
67.061.0
Auto12.1
Teleop38.8
End9.0
Third
8048
#38
37.94.3
44.640.3
Auto6.5
Teleop29.5
End1.8
blue by 12.8
972
#35
50.76.0
55.249.1
Auto11.1
Teleop31.5
End8.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned98%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
69%Coral oddsMissed82%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
87%Barge oddsMissed97%Barge oddsMissed