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Red261
945077.5
594084.1
546875.8
Blue277
940871.8
60488.8
58187.0
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2522460100200300400500261277

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+8
Teleop+16
Endgame+16
Fouls+16
AutonomousBlue +8
6Leave6
10Coral scored#12
52Coral points60
58Total auto66
TeleoperatedBlue +8
28Coral scored#33
99Coral points119
6Processor algae#4
8Net algae#8
36Processor points24
32Net points32
68Algae points56
167Total teleop175
Reef
12L4#14
8L3#12
12L2#11
6L1 · trough#8
52Game pieces#57
Bargelevel
36Cage & park36
36Total endgame36
Penalties & totalBlue +16
0Foul points0
261Total score277

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5940
#11
84.10.4
84.685.0
Auto23.3
Teleop52.1
End8.7
blue by 4.6
604
#7
88.80.7
85.986.6
Auto23.4
Teleop55.6
End9.8
Second
77.50.4
78.078.4
Auto17.6
Teleop48.4
End11.5
blue by 9.5
581
#14
87.00.7
84.184.8
Auto20.4
Teleop56.8
End9.8
Third
5468
#25
75.80.4
76.276.6
Auto17.6
Teleop47.9
End10.3
red by 4.0
9408
#17
71.80.7
68.969.6
Auto10.1
Teleop53.7
End8.0