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Red238
441493.8
550759.2
304568.4
Blue263
940871.8
60488.8
58187.0
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions226250150200300350238263

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+12
Teleop+25
Endgame+25
Fouls+25
AutonomousBlue +12
3Leave6
10Coral scored#12
51Coral points60
54Total auto66
TeleoperatedBlue +13
34Coral scored#34
124Coral points123
3Processor algae#4
4Net algae#6
18Processor points24
16Net points24
34Algae points48
158Total teleop171
Reef
11L4#18
11L3#15
12L2#6
10L1 · trough#7
51Game pieces#56
Bargelevel
26Cage & park26
26Total endgame26
Penalties & totalBlue +25
0Foul points0
238Total score263

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4414
#12
93.80.4
93.994.2
Auto19.5
Teleop64.5
End9.8
red by 5.0
604
#7
88.80.5
86.687.1
Auto23.4
Teleop55.6
End9.8
Second
3045
#10
68.40.4
68.468.8
Auto13.8
Teleop44.0
End10.6
blue by 18.6
581
#14
87.00.5
84.885.3
Auto20.4
Teleop56.8
End9.8
Third
5507
#21
59.20.4
58.859.2
Auto17.9
Teleop31.2
End10.1
blue by 12.6
9408
#17
71.80.5
69.670.1
Auto10.1
Teleop53.7
End8.0