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Red140
97746.6
859046.2
337335.9
Blue156
173153.5
12246.6
621321.8
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12712450100150200140156

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+5
Teleop+10
Endgame+18
Fouls+16
AutonomousBlue +5
9Leave9
5Coral scored#6
23Coral points28
32Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +5
16Coral scored#21
58Coral points77
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#3
12Processor points6
20Net points12
32Algae points18
90Total teleop95
Reef
9L4#14
5L3#4
5L2#4
2L1 · trough#5
28Game pieces#31
BargeBlue +8
16Cage & park24
16Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +16
2Foul points0
140Total score156

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
977
#44
46.61.5
44.746.2
Auto10.1
Teleop30.1
End6.4
blue by 6.9
1731
#17
53.52.8
51.854.5
Auto13.5
Teleop31.2
End8.8
Second
8590
#47
46.21.5
40.542.1
Auto9.6
Teleop34.6
End2.0
blue by 0.4
122
#8
46.62.8
44.347.1
Auto9.9
Teleop27.7
End9.0
Third
3373
#33
35.91.5
30.131.6
Auto8.9
Teleop18.5
End8.6
red by 14.2
6213
#50
21.82.8
18.221.0
Auto6.0
Teleop12.9
End2.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsEarned72%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed14%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
90%Barge oddsEarned96%Barge oddsEarned