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Red255
347880.0
327683.7
177189.4
Blue139
276780.8
414568.1
176878.0
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions269245150200300350255139

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+35Auto
+114Teleop
+116Endgame
+116Fouls
AutonomousRed +35
6Leave6
12Coral scored#5
59Coral points24
65Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +79
30Coral scored#16
108Coral points57
4Processor algae#2
8Net algae#4
24Processor points12
32Net points16
56Algae points28
164Total teleop85
Reef
20L4#5
8L3#9
8L2#5
6L1 · trough#2
54Game pieces#27
BargeRed +2
26Cage & park24
26Total endgame24
Penalties & totalRed +116
0Foul points0
255Total score139

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1771
Unranked
89.40.0
90.490.3
Auto27.4
Teleop52.1
End9.9
red by 8.6
2767
Unranked
80.82.1
82.980.8
Auto18.8
Teleop51.7
End10.3
Second
3276
Unranked
83.70.0
84.784.7
Auto11.2
Teleop61.9
End10.6
red by 5.7
1768
Unranked
78.02.1
80.178.0
Auto18.9
Teleop52.6
End6.5
Third
3478
Unranked
80.00.0
81.081.0
Auto19.2
Teleop50.3
End10.5
red by 11.9
4145
Unranked
68.12.1
70.268.1
Auto17.3
Teleop43.9
End6.9