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Red153
702868.0
617535.1
662813.0
Blue115
624417.7
534852.6
753018.2
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13594050150200153115

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+30Teleop
+38Endgame
+38Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
0Leave0
4Coral scored#3
22Coral points16
22Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +24
25Coral scored#19
89Coral points69
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#3
12Processor points12
16Net points12
28Algae points24
117Total teleop93
Reef
10L4#9
7L3#4
6L2#5
6L1 · trough#4
35Game pieces#27
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +38
0Foul points0
153Total score115

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7028
Unranked
68.00.6
66.166.8
Auto11.1
Teleop47.9
End9.0
red by 15.4
5348
Unranked
52.60.3
53.152.8
Auto8.8
Teleop36.9
End6.9
Second
6175
Unranked
35.10.6
32.633.3
Auto5.7
Teleop27.4
End2.0
red by 16.9
7530
Unranked
18.20.3
14.414.1
Auto5.5
Teleop9.4
End3.3
Third
6628
Unranked
13.00.6
12.513.2
Auto5.7
Teleop5.5
End1.8
blue by 4.7
6244
Unranked
17.70.3
16.716.4
Auto4.0
Teleop13.6
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsEarned50%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsEarned10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
77%Barge oddsEarned65%Barge oddsMissed