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Red103
752250.4
648735.0
584919.8
Blue99
544950.3
700215.2
641424.2
92%Model gave it8%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9852015010399

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+18Teleop
+10Endgame
+4Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave9
4Coral scored#3
21Coral points14
30Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +11
15Coral scored#12
53Coral points42
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
6Processor points6
8Net points8
14Algae points14
67Total teleop56
Reef
7L4#5
4L3#4
5L2#3
3L1 · trough#3
22Game pieces#18
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +4
0Foul points6
103Total score99

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.42.0
36.438.3
Auto11.0
Teleop37.7
End1.8
red by 0.2
50.34.3
29.734.0
Auto13.3
Teleop28.8
End8.1
Second
35.02.0
29.131.0
Auto11.2
Teleop22.4
End1.4
red by 10.8
6414
#12
24.24.3
16.620.9
Auto4.1
Teleop17.7
End2.5
Third
5849
#40
19.82.0
19.721.7
Auto5.7
Teleop11.3
End2.8
red by 4.5
7002
#37
15.24.3
7.812.1
Auto3.5
Teleop9.1
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
71%Auto oddsEarned56%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
52%Barge oddsMissed52%Barge oddsEarned