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Red171
963541.3
648735.0
1052635.0
Blue179
752250.4
461358.5
959733.6
22%Model gave it78%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11014350100200171179

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+2Teleop
Endgame+8
Fouls+8
AutonomousRed +11
9Leave9
8Coral scored#6
42Coral points31
51Total auto40
TeleoperatedBlue +9
19Coral scored#20
70Coral points73
2Processor algae#3
8Net algae#8
12Processor points18
32Net points32
44Algae points50
114Total teleop123
Reef
10L4#12
9L3#7
5L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
37Game pieces#37
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Penalties & totalBlue +8
0Foul points0
171Total score179

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9635
#14
41.31.4
39.941.3
Auto12.1
Teleop28.0
End1.3
blue by 17.1
58.51.1
55.756.7
Auto13.8
Teleop33.4
End11.3
Second
35.02.1
33.035.0
Auto11.2
Teleop22.4
End1.4
blue by 15.4
50.41.5
46.448.0
Auto11.0
Teleop37.7
End1.8
Third
35.01.9
33.035.0
Auto10.2
Teleop21.2
End3.5
red by 1.3
9597
#17
33.61.6
29.330.9
Auto6.8
Teleop26.1
End0.7