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Red159
694053.7
630420.0
821452.6
Blue165
752250.4
461358.5
959733.6
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions126145050100200250300159165

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
Teleop+8
Endgame+6
Fouls+6
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave9
6Coral scored#5
28Coral points24
37Total auto33
TeleoperatedBlue +12
23Coral scored#24
84Coral points88
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#6
6Processor points6
16Net points24
22Algae points30
106Total teleop118
Reef
8L4#9
13L3#8
4L2#6
4L1 · trough#6
34Game pieces#36
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Penalties & totalBlue +6
0Foul points0
159Total score165

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.71.1
52.653.7
Auto15.1
Teleop31.7
End7.0
blue by 4.7
58.50.7
56.757.4
Auto13.8
Teleop33.4
End11.3
Second
8214
#21
52.60.8
51.852.6
Auto15.1
Teleop34.3
End3.3
red by 2.2
50.40.9
48.048.9
Auto11.0
Teleop37.7
End1.8
Third
6304
#23
20.01.1
18.920.0
Auto5.8
Teleop10.8
End3.5
blue by 13.6
9597
#17
33.61.0
30.932.0
Auto6.8
Teleop26.1
End0.7