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Red101
222044.7
670650.2
130318.3
Blue74
197713.8
225919.2
224049.7
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions989340608012014010174

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+25Teleop
+25Endgame
+27Fouls
AutonomousRed +13
6Leave3
5Coral scored#3
27Coral points17
33Total auto20
TeleoperatedRed +12
12Coral scored#11
42Coral points40
1Processor algae#0
4Net algae#3
6Processor points0
16Net points12
22Algae points12
64Total teleop52
Reef
7L4#5
4L3#3
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#3
22Game pieces#17
Bargelevel
2Cage & park2
2Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +27
2Foul points0
101Total score74

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.20.9
36.437.3
Auto17.2
Teleop30.8
End2.2
red by 0.5
2240
#22
49.71.0
47.546.5
Auto11.2
Teleop38.5
End0.1
Second
2220
#18
44.70.7
37.838.4
Auto10.0
Teleop33.8
End0.9
red by 25.5
2259
#44
19.21.2
17.115.9
Auto5.8
Teleop12.1
End1.4
Third
1303
#25
18.31.0
15.716.7
Auto2.8
Teleop13.5
End2.0
red by 4.4
1977
#37
13.81.2
20.619.3
Auto5.3
Teleop6.7
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
66%Auto oddsEarned46%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
31%Barge oddsMissed33%Barge oddsMissed