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Red211
449971.9
161965.1
450122.1
Blue134
459340.3
651054.7
634839.5
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions167144100200250211134

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+77Teleop
+89Endgame
+77Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave3
9Coral scored#8
45Coral points41
51Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +70
24Coral scored#12
86Coral points44
2Processor algae#2
9Net algae#2
12Processor points12
36Net points8
48Algae points20
134Total teleop64
Reef
14L4#8
9L3#6
6L2#3
4L1 · trough#3
44Game pieces#24
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +77
0Foul points12
211Total score134

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
71.91.4
68.569.9
Auto19.7
Teleop43.4
End8.8
red by 17.3
54.70.3
54.954.6
Auto13.3
Teleop34.4
End7.0
Second
65.11.4
61.663.0
Auto16.5
Teleop40.3
End8.2
red by 24.8
4593
#16
40.30.3
40.540.2
Auto11.7
Teleop23.1
End5.6
Third
4501
#45
22.12.0
17.119.2
Auto6.8
Teleop14.5
End0.8
blue by 17.4
6348
#35
39.50.3
39.739.5
Auto5.8
Teleop32.2
End1.5