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Red74
208337.1
324540.1
297217.9
Blue32
197719.7
99909.3
294521.7
91%Model gave it9%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions107360501502007432

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
+34Teleop
+36Endgame
+42Fouls
AutonomousRed +1
0Leave6
2Coral scored#1
10Coral points3
10Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +33
9Coral scored#4
34Coral points13
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#0
6Processor points6
12Net points0
18Algae points6
52Total teleop19
Reef
5L4#1
4L3#2
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
15Game pieces#6
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +42
6Foul points0
74Total score32

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.11.6
42.741.1
Auto8.3
Teleop28.9
End2.9
red by 18.4
2945
#15
21.70.6
24.724.1
Auto3.3
Teleop15.9
End2.5
Second
37.11.6
29.427.9
Auto8.3
Teleop22.5
End6.3
red by 17.4
1977
#11
19.70.8
11.210.4
Auto3.3
Teleop12.9
End3.5
Third
2972
#27
17.91.6
19.718.1
Auto3.9
Teleop12.5
End1.5
red by 8.6
9990
#39
9.31.0
4.83.9
Auto1.0
Teleop7.3
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
63%Auto oddsMissed19%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
24%Coral oddsMissed1%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
24%Barge oddsMissed19%Barge oddsMissed