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Red58
748515.2
320022.8
208337.1
Blue31
1068614.6
182212.2
438830.1
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions98110501502005831

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+27Teleop
+33Endgame
+27Fouls
Autonomouslevel
6Leave6
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
6Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +27
7Coral scored#3
26Coral points9
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
6Processor points0
8Net points4
14Algae points4
40Total teleop13
Reef
3L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#1
2L1 · trough#0
10Game pieces#4
BargeRed +6
6Cage & park0
6Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +27
6Foul points12
58Total score31

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
37.12.3
34.232.0
Auto8.3
Teleop22.5
End6.3
red by 7.0
4388
#31
30.15.2
42.337.0
Auto6.8
Teleop22.1
End1.2
Second
3200
#19
22.82.3
22.420.1
Auto4.9
Teleop16.5
End1.4
red by 8.2
10686
#29DQ
14.66.9
26.519.5
Auto2.8
Teleop10.7
End1.1
Third
7485
#13
15.23.0
26.623.6
Auto1.9
Teleop10.8
End2.5
red by 3.0
1822
#30
12.26.9
25.418.4
Auto2.6
Teleop8.2
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
54%Auto oddsMissed68%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
13%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
18%Barge oddsEarned31%Barge oddsMissed