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Red63
999316.5
494434.5
999518.6
Blue23
294521.7
998610.6
833427.4
28%Model gave it72%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions539301502006323

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+42Teleop
+42Endgame
+40Fouls
AutonomousRed +13
6Leave3
3Coral scored#1
13Coral points3
19Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +29
7Coral scored#3
26Coral points11
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#0
6Processor points0
8Net points0
14Algae points0
40Total teleop11
Reef
4L4#2
3L3#0
1L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
13Game pieces#4
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +40
0Foul points2
63Total score23

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
34.50.2
39.239.4
Auto5.4
Teleop24.1
End5.0
red by 7.1
8334
#28
27.44.7
33.328.6
Auto4.4
Teleop20.2
End2.7
Second
9995
#18
18.60.3
10.510.8
Auto6.1
Teleop11.0
End1.5
blue by 3.1
2945
#15
21.73.5
30.326.8
Auto3.3
Teleop15.9
End2.5
Third
9993
#21
16.50.3
10.510.8
Auto1.4
Teleop13.7
End1.5
red by 5.9
9986
#24
10.65.9
10.54.6
Auto2.1
Teleop6.9
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
19%Auto oddsEarned58%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
40%Barge oddsMissed28%Barge oddsMissed