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Red78
294521.7
958624.6
999117.8
Blue58
141033.6
372915.3
998610.6
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions62660501001507858

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+16Teleop
+20Endgame
+20Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave9
1Coral scored#1
7Coral points4
16Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +13
11Coral scored#11
40Coral points39
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#0
6Processor points6
12Net points0
18Algae points6
58Total teleop45
Reef
3L4#5
4L3#3
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
16Game pieces#13
BargeRed +4
4Cage & park0
4Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +20
0Foul points0
78Total score58

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9586
#14
24.61.2
23.724.9
Auto4.9
Teleop19.4
End0.2
blue by 9.0
1410
#10
33.60.2
34.033.9
Auto7.4
Teleop24.2
End2.0
Second
2945
#15
21.71.2
20.521.7
Auto3.3
Teleop15.9
End2.5
red by 6.4
3729
#34
15.30.2
15.415.3
Auto3.2
Teleop11.1
End0.9
Third
9991
#17
17.81.5
15.917.4
Auto3.9
Teleop13.4
End0.6
red by 7.2
9986
#24
10.60.2
10.810.6
Auto2.1
Teleop6.9
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
33%Auto oddsEarned26%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
23%Barge oddsMissed16%Barge oddsMissed