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Red150
161967.9
133953.0
316617.5
Blue117
833427.4
958624.6
141033.6
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16083050100200250150117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+25Teleop
+27Endgame
+33Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
6Leave6
4Coral scored#2
21Coral points10
27Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +14
20Coral scored#19
73Coral points69
3Processor algae#2
5Net algae#4
18Processor points12
20Net points16
38Algae points28
111Total teleop97
Reef
8L4#10
8L3#7
5L2#2
3L1 · trough#2
32Game pieces#27
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +33
6Foul points0
150Total score117

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
67.90.2
66.266.4
Auto18.3
Teleop40.6
End9.0
red by 34.3
1410
#10
33.60.7
33.934.6
Auto7.4
Teleop24.2
End2.0
Second
53.00.2
51.351.5
Auto8.5
Teleop42.7
End1.7
red by 25.6
8334
#28
27.40.7
27.628.3
Auto4.4
Teleop20.2
End2.7
Third
3166
#22
17.50.2
17.117.4
Auto4.7
Teleop11.0
End1.7
blue by 7.2
9586
#14
24.60.7
24.925.6
Auto4.9
Teleop19.4
End0.2