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Red80
17744.6
318233.4
23730.5
Blue176
740787.1
42926.7
99951.4
27%Model gave it73%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1391865010025030035080176

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+31
Teleop+84
Endgame+96
Fouls+96
AutonomousBlue +31
9Leave0
1Coral scored#9
4Coral points44
13Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +53
11Coral scored#15
39Coral points54
1Processor algae#4
2Net algae#7
6Processor points24
8Net points28
14Algae points52
53Total teleop106
Reef
5L4#9
4L3#9
2L2#4
1L1 · trough#2
15Game pieces#35
BargeBlue +12
14Cage & park26
14Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +96
0Foul points0
80Total score176

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
177
#14
44.63.8
47.844.0
Auto9.4
Teleop25.2
End10.0
blue by 42.5
87.10.5
85.185.6
Auto24.6
Teleop49.7
End12.8
Second
3182
#15
33.43.8
42.939.1
Auto4.8
Teleop24.8
End3.8
blue by 18.0
999
#7
51.40.5
45.045.5
Auto12.0
Teleop36.9
End2.5
Third
237
#20
30.53.8
41.337.5
Auto5.8
Teleop23.5
End1.2
red by 3.8
429
#16
26.70.5
32.533.0
Auto8.1
Teleop13.0
End5.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsMissed97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
36%Coral oddsMissed64%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
84%Barge oddsEarned96%Barge oddsEarned