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Qual 22025 CIAC CT State Championship
Red126
715351.3
888933.5
314641.3
Blue122
22839.3
18137.2
514251.3
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15516850100200250300126122

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+2Teleop
+12Endgame
+4Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
6Leave9
3Coral scored#2
17Coral points10
23Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +2
20Coral scored#18
71Coral points65
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#5
6Processor points6
12Net points20
18Algae points26
89Total teleop91
Reef
9L4#7
8L3#5
3L2#4
3L1 · trough#4
27Game pieces#26
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +4
0Foul points8
126Total score122

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7153
#4
51.31.3
51.3→50.0
Auto11.9
Teleop32.9
End6.6
Level
5142
#22
51.32.7
60.9→58.2
Auto12.7
Teleop30.7
End7.8
Second
3146
#8
41.31.3
44.1→42.7
Auto6.8
Teleop26.7
End7.8
red by 1.9
228
#24
39.32.7
43.3→40.6
Auto10.6
Teleop24.7
End4.1
Third
8889
#11
33.51.3
37.5→36.2
Auto8.1
Teleop25.0
End0.4
blue by 3.7
181
#19
37.22.7
35.1→32.4
Auto3.1
Teleop32.2
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
88%Auto oddsEarned88%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
29%Coral oddsMissed34%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
68%Barge oddsEarned77%Barge oddsMissed