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Red201
808540.0
715351.3
17675.8
Blue128
99951.4
199132.6
318233.4
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions194125050100150250300201128

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+49Teleop
+69Endgame
+73Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
6Leave9
6Coral scored#2
31Coral points11
37Total auto20
TeleoperatedRed +32
32Coral scored#19
114Coral points70
2Processor algae#2
2Net algae#5
12Processor points12
8Net points20
20Algae points32
134Total teleop102
Reef
10L4#10
17L3#5
6L2#3
5L1 · trough#3
42Game pieces#28
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +73
4Foul points0
201Total score128

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
176
#2
75.80.8
74.575.2
Auto19.6
Teleop47.9
End8.3
red by 24.4
999
#7
51.40.8
48.547.7
Auto12.0
Teleop36.9
End2.5
Second
51.30.8
52.453.1
Auto11.9
Teleop32.9
End6.6
red by 17.9
3182
#15
33.40.8
35.034.2
Auto4.8
Teleop24.8
End3.8
Third
40.00.8
37.838.5
Auto5.3
Teleop27.9
End6.8
red by 7.3
1991
#17
32.60.8
33.232.3
Auto5.3
Teleop24.8
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned82%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
35%Coral oddsEarned35%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
93%Barge oddsEarned50%Barge oddsMissed