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Qual 192025 CIAC CT State Championship
Red112
514251.3
346434.9
888933.5
Blue122
23062.2
457237.3
314641.3
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14716550100200250112122

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+8
Endgame+8
Fouls+10
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave6
3Coral scored#3
17Coral points14
23Total auto20
TeleoperatedBlue +11
16Coral scored#19
59Coral points70
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#3
12Processor points12
12Net points12
24Algae points24
83Total teleop94
Reef
6L4#7
4L3#8
6L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
24Game pieces#27
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +10
0Foul points2
112Total score122

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5142
#22
51.31.5
53.5→52.0
Auto12.7
Teleop30.7
End7.8
blue by 10.9
230
#9
62.21.9
66.3→64.3
Auto17.7
Teleop37.0
End7.6
Second
3464
#18
34.91.5
37.7→36.2
Auto10.0
Teleop23.9
End1.0
blue by 6.3
3146
#8
41.31.9
40.9→39.0
Auto6.8
Teleop26.7
End7.8
Third
8889
#11
33.51.5
38.4→36.8
Auto8.1
Teleop25.0
End0.4
blue by 3.8
4572
#10
37.31.9
36.1→34.2
Auto10.6
Teleop23.2
End3.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
17%Coral oddsMissed43%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
55%Barge oddsMissed85%Barge oddsMissed